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Commodity Chat With Trader Jim! (tm) with Jim Prince with Jim Prince
from 11/11/2008



Jim Prince Says:

Good evening! Trader Jim here. . .

Thanks for spending your evening with me and your fellow GBE Course Members tonight! We are definitely in interesting times. We have a new President stepping into office in January, the stock indices continue their downward spiral, and a tremendous number of markets are in down trends. September and the first part of October offered multiple opportunities to the astute paper trader. And on the flip side, the last week or so of October saw several paper trades get stopped out. But that's part of the business and why I emphasize how vitally important it is to risk an amount that is appropriate for the size of your account. The use of stops and protecting your capital should be job #1!

Recently we've had nice paper trades trigger in March Cotton and March Eurodollars. These markets, as well as many others, have been featured in our nightly Premium Alert Service™ (PAS) videos.

Please feel free to share your paper trading or real money trading experiences in any of the markets mentioned above, as well as any others you may have traded. When you discuss your market experiences it helps others learn that they are not alone in this business and it's a great way for everyone to learn from one another. Feel free to share your excitement, passion and enthusiasm! It helps provide others with hope and insight of what can happen.

I'd like send a big "Thank You" to Ken Roberts. Ken started introducing folks to the Greatest Business on Earth™ over 20 years ago. I was fortunate enough to not only be a student of Ken's, but I also had the great pleasure to work for him for 12+ years. I'm happy to be able to share with you what I've learned over the years.

As we begin this evening's session, remember the reason these monthly chats are conducted is to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and to pick the brain of a 20+ year student of the markets.

It's not the best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. Please contact one of our Course Counselors if you need assistance with any of the introductory principles. They can be reached Monday through Friday 8:30am to 5:00pm PT at 541-955-2885. This chat is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you're learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you're out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun and laughter along those lines, so much the better.

NOTE!!! When commenting on one of the GBE strategies or US Charts, please identify WHICH STRATEGY AND/OR MARKET. Also, when relating trading experiences and/or results, please provide details: Futures contracts, options, option strike prices, options AND futures, real money or paper trading, and contract month etc. This really helps your fellow Course Members follow along and learn from your experience.

From time-to-time you may notice that I'll use a bit of "chat short-hand." If you see LOL for example, it means Laughing Out Loud. Or TS, which means Trend Seeker™. These are the two most prominent bits of short hand you'll see within our chats.





Tavius asks (6:05:27 PM):

Is there a way to trade without having to put $3000 down on account? Everywhere I look they want large sums down to trade.

Jim Prince Says:

Hi Tavius!

Not that I'm aware of, but it's something you should ask each firm you contact. You might simply mention that you're only interested in trading options. If that's the case, perhaps they'll let you open an account with the funds you will only use for options. In other words, if the option premium is $500 for a potential trade, maybe they will let you only have the $500 in the account. Like I mentioned above, it's a good thing to ask the firm you're chatting with.





nice _guy asks (6:06:33 PM):

Hey Trader Jim, Thanks so much for all the great info (via your website).I am an old Ken Roberts subscriber

Jim Prince Says:
Thanks for stopping by tonight, nice_guy! Glad to have you with us!



Retired Early asks (6:10:14 PM):

Hi Jim what do you do in a case like Jan Rough Rice.. its a hi lo breakout to the downside but its so close . Todays close was only a fraction lower than the previous year low. Does it still count? what happens if it closes just a fraction higher than the previous years low?

Jim Prince Says:
Hey Retired Early! For it to be a Hi Lo setup the close actually has to be lower than the prior 12-month low. In this instance, the 12-month low was made at 12.810 on 11/15/2007. Take a glance under the chart in the table that contains the 1 Year Values. Thanks for your question.



Keith for Michele in asks (6:14:13 PM):

Price can trend before, at, and after the funds load contracts at the USDA Reports Time. The increased volume can push price on the chart. Can you share a link to the futures contracts' purchase quantity leaders and dates to watch the reports? Go Trend Seeker

Jim Prince Says:

Not that I'm aware of Keith for Michele in! I simply watch the charts and filter the formations with Trend Seeker. I think it's too difficult to try to guess when and where funds are buying/selling. Plus I really don't want to follow those guys. They seem to be on the wrong side quite often -- especially if you believe what you read in the various financial papers. Wink





Lance asks (6:17:34 PM):

You have identified many markets hitting lows last month. how long do you wait once the trend setter tells you the market trend has changed before you jump on board the new trend??

Jim Prince Says:

Howdy Lance! I'll wait as long as is necessary. I've learned over the years to not try to outguess the markets. To not place my opinion on the markets, to rather trade what I see rather than what I think. So once Trend Seeker identifies the trend I want to have a chart pattern to trade. I use the two in conjunction with one another. If no pattern exists I'll wait til one does.

Hope this helps.





j29free asks (6:21:55 PM):

Hi Jim,Thanks for your expertise! My question is about trend seeker. It seems that trendseeker lags way behind in identifying a change in trend. Some markets seem to move a long way before the trend changes, and I seem to miss profits.. Is this your experience as well, or is it me? Nonethess, do you still always wait for a change?

Jim Prince Says:

I think that's a common misconception, j29free. I think it's human nature to want to get in at the beginning of a trend. However, it usually doesn't work well. If I have to miss a portion of the move by guessing the trend has changed, so be it.

My suggestion is to wait for a chart pattern to form and trade the breakout in the direction of the Trend Seeker trend rating. Together they do such a good job that I personally have no problem waiting Trend Seeker out. If I don't, it's all about how well I can guess and for me that's the wrong attitude to have.

Also remember that for a trend rating to change, a major point of support/resistance has to be broken.

Hope this helps.





metalman asks (6:24:37 PM):

My quest is on how to find a good broker that understands the GBE methods and follows them through ands through and doesnt try to steer u in a different path.

Jim Prince Says:

Hey metalman! Our preferred broker, Daniels Trading, is fully versed in all of the strategies and are extremely capable in steering you in the right direction. Be sure to click on the brokers tab here in the GBE site to learn more about them.

They are a great crew and I can't say enough good things about them.





Aaron asks (6:27:56 PM):

Hi Jim, What does your daily trading routine look like? That is, do you generally look over charts in the mornings or evenings? Do you look at every market on a daily basis or only periodically? Just trying to get a sense for how other people are fitting this into their lives. Thanks!

Jim Prince Says:

Great question, Aaron! I personally like to look over charts in the early afternoon each day. That's where I "Do Work" as my son likes to say. I'll look through every market, usually the front month contracts and make decisions at that time.

In fact, I'm usually doing this when I'm looking for markets to place in the Premium Alert Service nightly videos.

I will also look through a few charts during the trading session, especially if a market has made a big move on the Heatmap.





Indiana Jim asks (6:30:40 PM):

Hello everyone, just wanted to introduce myself. I'm a "retread" I traded real money several years ago under Ken but my other businesses started to consume my time...I've sold everything and start paper trading again...I feel like a kid again.Thanks Jim for being here!

Jim Prince Says:

Welcome back, Indiana Jim! (Cool name) You couldn't have come back to the business at a more exciting time. So much happening on a daily basis it's amazing.

I'll make a suggestion since you're just getting back at it. Take it slow and easy and don't be in a hurry. Approach this business like you'd eat an elephant, one bite at a time!

 





atlast 9 asks (6:34:36 PM):

Hi Jim, Your recommendation for the two books by Mark Douglas is an excellent recommendation. I can see that you follow the principals he teaches except that you probably developed your own rules in the school of hard knocks. The book makes it abundantly clear why we should follow your lead and develop our own rules that we are comfortable with. We cannot improve on your rules to have a plan, be patient, don't be greedy, and yes!!! be happy with being stopped out. That was a hard one to buy into, but it has finally made sense. In his book, he stated that successful traders have rigid rules and flexible expectations and that losers have flexible rules and rigid expectations. It has been a hard task to develop my own rigid rules and after I had created them, the tough part has been trying to follow them even on your identified channels and pennants. Cannot thank you enough for the recommendation.

Jim Prince Says:

Glad the book helped so much, atlast 9! One thing that Mark says that has stuck with me for a long time and that is......... expect the unexpected!

I think that is especially true in this day and age. I chat about some of my early downfalls in our newest DVDs that cover the same important topic as Mark's books do. The Course Counselor's also share insight that they've garnered over the years from chatting with fellow Course Members. You can check out more about it at the link below this post.

Great job working on yourself and getting to that next level. Congrats!







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johnh_2007 asks (6:41:08 PM):

Dear Mr. Prince, You mentioned in a previous PAS you don't trade formations less then 4 weeks old. The past few days, however, you've been showcasing pennants that are about 3 weeks old. Is there a specific chart pattern you won't trade if less the 4 weeks old? Thanks, John

Jim Prince Says:

Hey johnh_2007! I much prefer formations that take over four weeks to develop. However, that doesn't mean I won't trade them. Typically a lot goes into a trading decision. The placement on that chart of the formation, the duration, time til FND or LTD, options expiration, the length of the price bars, nearby support/resistance levels etc.

I stay flexible and won't simply ignore a chart pattern simply because it's less than four weeks in duration. Typically I prefer the longer duration patterns, but when considering what to trade I take all of the above into consideration.

Hope this helps and please call me Jim! Laughing

 





Jim from Kalamazoo, asks (6:44:35 PM):

My question is: With Eurodollars trading at near the highest point possible, wouldn't it make send to start shorting the market?

Jim Prince Says:

Hi Jim! Not for me and what I teach! I prefer trading with the trend and right now the trend is up. I much prefer not to try to guess when a top (or bottom) is going to form. As I state quite often, it's much easier to swim down river than up.

Be sure to check the Training Videos and the manual to make sure you're on the same page with what I teach Jim. Since most traders don't follow the trend (and we do), we are basically contrarian traders!





pammie asks (6:48:08 PM):

Hey Jim, if I get in on a trade and can only afford 1 contract, is it wise to use a limit order placed before the initial target to get out? If the market continues on to a second target do I just get back in or move on to another trade?

Jim Prince Says:

Hey Pammie! Good question! I'd use a limit order in front of the target. If trading one contract and your target is hit, and the market continue on with out you, so be it.

You made a profit and it's now time to move on to the next setup. If another setup in that same market takes place you can look to get back in. But don't blindly jump in because the market has moved beyond your initial target.

Good question.





Rottie asks (6:51:16 PM):

Hi Jim,These chat sessions are great, so too is the PAS - really enjoying it. Two questions for you:1. Is there a point where volume is too low to consider not trading market as fills/liquidations would be diffucult (ie Oats)? 2.If so, would you trade futures contract instead of option for easier fills/liquidations? Thanks for your time, keep up the great work!

Jim Prince Says:

Hey Rottie! I avoid some markets but I think it's up to each individual to decide what he/she should avoid. This can best be decided via paper trading.

There will be lower volume/open interest markets that offer good opportunities. Then, of course, there are those that are just too crazy and never follow through how you'd like them to. So paper trade and find out what markets you prefer and which ones you don't.

I think either options or futures can be used in most any market.  

Thanks for the nice words!







Jim Prince Says:

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GERALD asks (6:54:20 PM):

ONCE THIS ECONOMIC CRISIS IS OVER, WOULD THE COMMODITY EXCHANGES CONSIDER LOWERING THE MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR FUTURE CONTRACTS?

Jim Prince Says:

Hey Gerald! The margins are set high (or low) based on the volatility in that particular market. As a whole I don't think the "economic crisis" has much to do with it. It's really all about the volatility.

Now whether or not they'll decline will depend on if the volatility declines. Remember, there are mini contracts on several of the various markets. Be sure to check with your broker for more info. as these may just be the ticket for you.





livingthegoodlife asks (6:55:07 PM):

Jim, I wanted to say that I've been a client of Daniels Trading for some time and they are awesome for any trader. I use the DTPro and don't see how anyone could trade any different!

Jim Prince Says:
Thanks for the info. livingthegoodlife!



jasper asks (6:58:58 PM):

What in the wide, wide, world of sports is a dogi bar. You have mentioned it twice recently and I do not remember reading anything about it.

Jim Prince Says:

Hi jasper, A doji bar is a price bar that both the opening tick and the closing tick are at similar price points. When one forms you might want to be on the lookout for a possible short-term price reversal.

No magic here but it's something that you might want to be aware of when managing your trades.





Big T asks (7:00:34 PM):

Hey Jim, Another simple question. You use a marker in your premium alerts. Is that available in the tools?

Jim Prince Says:

Hey Big T! The marker I use in contained within the recording software I use to produce the Premium Alerts.

 





waysworking asks (7:03:35 PM):

Hi, Jim, I started with Ken Years ago and I am doing ok with options. My question is if I want to buy 2 or 3 May 09 corn put options with the same strike price, is it better to buy 2 or 3 on one order or should I buy one at a time. Then when I sell do have to sell them in that same bundle of 2 or 3 or one at a time.

Jim Prince Says:

Hey waysworking! If you want to buy multiple options you can do it in just one order. That's the easiest way to do it. You can sell them one at a time too. This works especially well if you have multiple targets.

Good question and welcome back!





grampacharlie asks (7:06:02 PM):

Hi Jim:Thank you for the latest DVD Mastering Your Inner Trader. I enjoyed hearing you talk about your early trading days. My first real money trade was in Copper and I made $1600.00. I thought this is easy, I had a few losing trades after that and then went long Canadian Dollar. I knew it had to go up so instead of protecting with a stop I just kept it until I got out on a margin call wiping out my account. In retrospect how much better off I would have been to take a small loss and still be able to trade when it did finally turn around, which it did after I was out. I always use stops now.

Jim Prince Says:

Hey grampacharlie! Thanks for the nice words. It's interesting to hear/read the different things to pushed people (me included) to wise up and use stops -- to protect their capital! Glad you "listened" to your inner-self.

Good job!





George asks (7:08:33 PM):

Due to the major swings in the stock market throughout this present economic downturn, there's been talk at the highest level of government to alter the way people trade stocks. Do you think such alterations (if imposed), will affect commodity trading as well?

Jim Prince Says:

I'm not sure, George. I don't think we can spend a lot of time thinking about it either. I much prefer to give my attention to the charts.

I don't mean to come across as if I'm dodging your question, but I really haven't given the topic much thought.





B asks (7:10:56 PM):

First, we want to thank you and the staff for an exceptional trading camp this past September. You were all very gracious and informative. We recommend all course members take advantage of this great learning opportunity. Our question is, when entry permits, could there possibly be any advatages or dis-advantages to having a contract in one month and also a contract in the following month of the same market or would it be best to concentrate on one month only?

Jim Prince Says:
Thanks for the nice words about the Trading Camp B! In regards to your question, I would focus on only one chart unless you have an identical chart setup and possible entry in the other. But for the most part I think you're best bet is to focus on chart. You'll find trade management will be easier for you.



jomur asks (7:13:17 PM):

I have wondered if it is better to buy an option outright, or whether to purchase a spread. Is one more beneficial than the other?

Jim Prince Says:
Hey jomur! Your question really depends on several things so I can't answer the question directly. But basically the type of option trade you do will depend on your objectives. Be sure to double check our strategies section. There are a couple of spread strategies that you might want to consider..... again depending on your objectives.



agilcash asks (7:16:50 PM):

Jim: You just said --"Since most traders don't follow the trend (and we do), we are basically contrarian traders!"This doesn't sound contrary to me (just the opposite). Please explain.Thanks!

Jim Prince Says:
It's pretty straight forward agilcash! Many traders tend to want to pick tops and bottoms. In my opinion that's the bulk of traders. Since we do just the opposite that makes us contrarian to the majority of traders. Thus, in my opinion we are contrarian traders. Laughing



golduster asks (7:17:59 PM):

Hi everyone. I have recently been trading with real money and can vouch for Jim's advice---trade what you see. This was a hard lesson for me. After losing $$$ in a few (emotional) trades I finally learned to sit on my hands until everything was in place.

Jim Prince Says:
Nicely said golduster!





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rawhide asks (7:24:28 PM):

A couple weeks ago I purchased an at the money call at the same time that I went short in the same market and month. I did this because the place that I felt I needed to put my stop loss was more than I wanted to risk. What I did not do was decide how far to let the market drop and then liquidate the call and set a stop loss on the futures contract. I ended up with a small profit. But!! it would have been better if I would have planned my trade and traded my plan. Where have I heard that before? What is your opinion of that strategy? I did get a good lesson and it soaked in about plans. Thanks for Premium Alert it is great and the same goes for Target,Stops

Jim Prince Says:

Hey rawhide! You are right on in realizing that the option liquidation needed to be part of your plan. But now you know. Personally I prefer not to use options to hedge my futures trades. The reason? I don't like starting the trade in the red. My futures position has to make up for the cost of the option before it realizes a profit. To me that's just one more obstacle that a winning trade has to overcome.

Thanks for your nice comments about the PAS and DVD.





Wayne in LA asks (7:32:58 PM):

Jim, your response regarding trading formations of less than 4 weeks duration was very interesting. Can you say more regarding how FND and LTD, and also length of price bars, influence your choices? This sounds very useful.

Jim Prince Says:

Howdy Wayne in LA! If long you need to be out of a futures position a good week or more before First Notice Day (FND). If short you want to be out of the futures position a good week or more before Last Trading Day (LTD) (this is general rule of thumb). I typically want to have more time than the 1-2 weeks to let a trade work. As far as the length of price bars go, really long price bars can ad to the immaturity of a chart pattern. I prefer to stay away from the large "spiky" type bars. Take a look at the chart of the US Dollar Index below and you'll see several long bars that added to the difficulty in identifying this chart pattern.

USD




Retired Early asks (7:37:51 PM):

hey Jim, about these spreads, we were always taught previously that if you sold an option you could get stuck with it and lose the farm, now we find out they can be liquidated,,, has something changed recently?

Jim Prince Says:

I think what you're referring to is if you simply sell a "naked" option. Other than our Neutral strategy that is not the case. The other advanced strategies have an option that is purchased. In fact, the one sold is usually used to offset the cost of the close-to-the-money option that is purchased.

I'm currently in the process of producing two DVDs about our advanced option strategies. This allows me to go into much more detail than is provided on the web site. In anticipate they'll be ready in February.





charter1 asks (7:40:53 PM):

From Chicago, Hello everyone joining tonight. I want to share my experience in how I overcame my emotions when in a paper trade(this time), by sticking to plan .DEC08 Canadian dollar (e) .A HI/LO strategy was developing, on Oct 21 prices closed below the prior contract low of (.8264) at .825. Target was the weekly support level at .7855, move stops at natural levels of support and resistance. I shorted 2 contracts at .8263 the next day. The same day prices tanked dramatically and I moved stops above resistance from that day. Oct 24 my target was hit, a profit of $8160.Caught up in the moment plus the emotion of greed saying" let the trade ride a little more, it's been only 3 days and maybe you can profit more". 4 days later prices reversed and shot up to my entry point. That's one way of keeping emotions out of a trade_stick to your plan.

Jim Prince Says:
I hate to say it charter1, it's a tough one to swallow but at least it's a lesson learned. Just goes to show you how important it is to stick to your plan! Congrats on the realization and keep plugging along. You'll have another opportunity down the line, just be sure you stick to your plan when you get another chance.



waysworking asks (7:44:24 PM):

Hi Jim, I noticed that I get quicker fills in grain options using the pit traded day sessions right now. Also the electronic sessions seem to have very little trading in the evening, any thoughts on this.Waysworking

Jim Prince Says:

I'm not sure how it is that you're getting quicker fills on the pit sessions, but I'll take your word for it. Personally I find you can't beat the electronic sessions during the trading day. But it really depends on the type of order you use. If using market orders they can't be beat.

The evening sessions are lightly traded because the bulk of the activity is taking place during the day session. Traders got to rest sometime! Wink





Bearcat asks (7:47:06 PM):

Hi Jim, In the markets that have both electronic and pit trading, do you prefer to trade one over the other? If so Why?

Jim Prince Says:

Hey bearcat! I prefer the electronic sessions because that's where the bulk of the trading activity is located. Most of the action is moving from the pits to the "E" markets. I find the fills are quicker and with less slippage for the most part.

 







Jim Prince Says:

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zapper asks (7:51:22 PM):

when liquidating an option how do I know the going price at the current moment?

Jim Prince Says:
What's up, zapper? The best method is to simply ask your broker. They can give you a current "live" bid/ask on the market in question.



Keith for Michele in asks (7:53:45 PM):

Are the buy and sell open orders our brokers see with live data typically placed primarily at price support, resistance, and 50% retracement levels?

Jim Prince Says:

Orders are placed at different levels depending on what each trader is trying to accomplish. Their reasons could be any of those that you've listed above. Typically a broker can't see an order per se'. What they can see, however, is the bid and ask price. Hope this helps.





anotherjim asks (8:00:26 PM):

What would be a reasonable amount of time a trader needs to spend each night reveiwing and training for trading? As we learn more, it seems like a bit more time needs to be applied to the learning curve. As our instructor, how many hour do you spend actually following the markets. Thanks for all that you do for us. I can tell with your blog how much you do care for us...even though you have not met that many of us. As a baseball fan, what do you think of the Matt Holliday trade that the Rockies and A's did?

Jim Prince Says:

Hi anotherjim! Keep in mind that I "watch" the markets all day. But as far as studying charts etc. I probably spend 1-2 hours a day looking at them and marking them up and making decisions. That's me.

For the guy or gal with a 9-5 job and a family it's a bit tougher to spend that much time each day. However, I suggest you get in as much study time as your schedule allows. For some that is just 15 mins a night. For others it's an hour. Try to do something each and every day. That way the markets stay fresh in your mind and you're more likely to stay in tune with what's happening.

Holliday should have gone to the Cards. Albert and Matt in the same lineup would have been awesome! 

Thanks for the comments on the blog. I think the posting has become an obsession. My wife says it's my other love. I told her she was wrong, the markets actually are. . . Wink 





JWG29 asks (8:02:08 PM):

Hey Jim, concerning spread ratios it would be nice to have you include one every so often in PAS, like you do when you suggest a possible Low Ball Strategy opportunity. Just a thought. Keep up the great work!

Jim Prince Says:
I'll see what I can do, JWG29! Thanks for the suggestion.



Retired Early asks (8:05:10 PM):

hi trader Jim, when you say you trade the electronic markets and are getting good fills, Are you using a broker or software?

Jim Prince Says:
I actually use software provided by a broker. That said, if you're just getting started I suggest you use a broker and place orders via phone. Let them help you learn the biz. You're gonna make mistakes and they can literally help save you thousands of dollars by keeping your from placing the wrong type of orders. After you've been at it a while then you might consider switching to a platform and placing your own orders.





Jim Prince Says:

Well that's it for this month. Keep in mind, that you're not alone in your trading journey. US Charts Online, myself, and our wonderful Course Counselors (541-955-2885) are here to help you become the best you can be. On that note, be sure to check out our weekly video training lessons at: US Charts Online. This is a fantastic teaching tool and free to all GBE Members and US Chart Online subscribers!

Finally, make sure you have a plan prior to entering any trade and use stops to protect your trading capital. As a trader your capital is THE most valuable asset you have!

Plan your trade and trade your plan!

My next chat will be on Tuesday, December 9, 2008. God Bless and I look forward to seeing you then!






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