Chat Archives
Commodity Chat With Trader Jim! (tm) with Jim Prince from 06/10/2008
Hello and good evening! Trader Jim here. . . Thanks for investing your time in tonight's GBE chat! We have a lot to cover this evening as several markets are beginning to move. November Soybeans, December Soybean Meal, September Eurodollars, and August Gold have either broken out of their formations in strong fashion or are just beginning to move. The Stock Indices have been pretty crazy the last week or so as well. By the way, all of these markets are currently featured in our nightly Premium Alert Service™ (PAS) videos. Feel free to share your paper trading or real money trading experiences in any of the markets mentioned above, as well as any others. Discussing your market experiences lets others know they are not alone in this business and it's a great way for everyone to learn from one another. Free to share your excitement, enthusiasm, and passion. It provides others with hope and insight of what's to come. I'd like send a big "Thank You" to Ken Roberts. Ken started introducing folks to the Greatest Business on Earth™ over 20 years ago. I was fortunate enough to not only be a student of Ken's, but I also had the great pleasure to work for him for 12+ years. I'm happy to be able to share with you what I've learned over the years. As we begin this evening's session, remember the reason these monthly chats are conducted is to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and to pick the brain of a 20+ year student of the markets. It's not the best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. Please contact one of our Course Counselors if you need assistance with any of the introductory principles. They can be reached Monday through Friday 8:30am to 5:00pm PT at 541-955-2885. This chat is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you're learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you're out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun and laughter along those lines, so much the better. NOTE!!! When commenting on one of the GBE strategies or US Charts, please identify WHICH STRATEGY AND/OR MARKET. Also, when relating trading experiences and/or results, please provide details: Futures contracts, options, option strike prices, options AND futures, real money or paper trading, and contract month etc. This really helps your fellow Course Members follow along and learn from your experience. From time-to-time you may notice that I'll use a bit of "chat short-hand." If you see LOL for example, it means Laughing Out Loud. Or TS it means Trend Seeker. These are the two most prominent bits of short-hand you'll see.
Victoria asks (6:00:51 PM):
Jim, that plan that you said you were woking on, Does it have anything to do with long term option trading?
Hi Victoria! I'm not sure what plan you're referring to as I'm working on several projects right now. My most recent is nearly completed and will probably go to the duplicator next week. It's titled How to Trade Chart Patterns with Early Entry Techniques(tm). I am working on several direct option programs too. I'll keep you posted. Thanks for your interest.
Marvin asks (6:01:56 PM):
9:10 Have you started as yet?
We are rolling, Marvin!
Carl T asks (6:07:26 PM):
Hi Jim. When deciding on a futures market to trade, you advise to stay away from thinly traded markets with low volume and open interest. Would this be true with options? It seems that a lot of the options that would be affordable for smaller accounts, also have very low open interest and would therefore be difficult to enter and exit quickly. Also, in the "Delta Options Trading Strategy" it was recommended to only trade markets with a daily options volume of at least 2000. Can you shed some light on this? Thank you.
Hey Carl T, Option trading is all about buying the right options. Volume really doesn't have a lot to do with it in my mind. If you place your entry order correctly you really shouldn't have a problem getting filled. Same with the exit. Be sure to refer to the various option trading videos I've done in the Training Video section at US Charts Online. They should help and can do a lot better at explaining in that format versus what I can do here. Remember though, you can always enter and exit at the market, all though I don't advise you do that. As far as the Delta strategy goes. . . I don't trade with that method and it's been years since I've read through it. So I'm not really sure about the statement in regards to 2000 volume.
Sandra C asks (6:09:19 PM):
Hi Jim, Really like the PAS however get a bit strung out with all the markets. What is a good number of markets to be on top of.
Hi Sandra C! Good question. Typically 3-5 markets is all that most can and should handle. I'd focus on that number to follow that way you know what's happening at any one time and less likely to get confused. Keep a good log too. That's what I do. In fact, for the PAS I have a spiral notebook that I use. You might say it's old school!
rickh asks (6:10:49 PM):
hey jim, love your blog. just curious, where do you find all those great quotes?
Thanks for the kind words, rickh! There are several sources on the web. If you'd like to find them go to Google and search for motivational quotes. You'll find a lot of them. Thanks again and glad you like the blog. It's a blast to do.
slowmo asks (6:14:22 PM):
Sometimes I feel like I'm watching the markets too closely. Kind of like, not seeing the forest for the trees. Do you ever have to step back and look at the big picture? Also a suggestion: When going through the charts I have to continually click on the electronic link and click on the later month link because I am looking at Sept. and the electronic chart. Is there some kind of switch you could add on each market that would take me right to the market I am watching? I know there is the My Charts link, but I usually go through every market two to three times a week. Thanks
Hey slowmo, One good thing to do when you find yourself in that type of situation is to take a couple of days away from the markets and clear your head. Get completely away and I'm not just talking about a weekend. That usually does it and you come back with a renewed interest and usually can see the forest for the trees. As far as the charts go. . . load the Quick Quotes page and then select the Electronic quotes. Select a chart from the D icon on this page. Your E chart will load. Then click your browsers back button and you'll be back at the Quote page. Then select your next market. Easy as pie and typically the way I do it. Hope this helps.
Chris asks (6:16:24 PM):
Hello Jim, I am looking at Platinum this week and I see a huge swing to the long side on one day but it came back down t he next day. If I was trading the channel and had a contract going short before that day would I have been stopped out at my stop loss or would I be on margin call with a day like that?
Well Chris, this is tough to answer because I don't know the price of your stop order. So it all depends on where you had your stop loss order. If your stop loss order price was hit and the swing higher, then you'd be out of the trade.
John from Mich. asks (6:20:00 PM):
Trader Jim, Please help, As Crude Oil July08 as my example, Why are there 2 sets of trading hours posted ? Also I didnt see an {E} in referance to electronic trading,Im a little dumbfounded? Thanks for tonites chat. John
Howdy John from Mich, There are two sets of trading hours posted because technically there are two sessions each day. There's the day session and then there is the evening session. Thus the different hours. US Charts Online actually combines the charts of both session into one chart. So if you pull up an interactive chart of July Crude Oil right now you'll see the price bar on the chart for June 11. Thanks for stopping by tonight.
Major Geek asks (6:21:16 PM):
Jim, What time during the day does the Trend Seeker Trend ratings update?
Hey Major Geek! Trend Seeker is updated daily at 5:00 pm CT.
Neel R asks (6:24:31 PM):
Hi Jim! More praise for the GBE and the Premium Alerts. Snagged both the September Japanese Yen and Euro dollar short yesterday and nicely in the money. Was actually watching the Euro for many months and bought 20 96.5 puts in February for 0.005 points. Needless to say at 0.13 points it's blowing nicely. How many months do you go with way out of the money options?
Congrats on the nice trades, Neel R! About your question. . . "way out of the money options." I typically don't buy way out of the money options. I usually focus on the top five strikes. Be sure you check out the ToolBox section and look for the article about the Rule of 3 to 5s. I think that might give you the details you're looking for.
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Dan The Man asks (6:30:21 PM):
Hi Jim,Long time Ken Roberts student and got out of it a while back after I lost my account due to NOT following Ken Robert's! Well, I'm back and love the Stops and Money Management DVDs, especially about the account ratio. That's where I blew it before. Anyway, I got back in the game and got discouraged. I've picked 3 losers out of 3 and lost 25% of my account. These were all technically correct trades but just got unlucky. (Bean Oil long about 3 weeks ago, Oats short recently and Lumber long off 1-2-3 bottom if that gives you a clue). The one market I didn't trade was Soybeans and it took off!! Question is, how do you keep from getting discouraged??
Hey Dan, the thing you have to realize is that it's a numbers game. That's why it's so important to have the correct risk/reward ratio as well as the right amount of risk for your account. All traders go through tough streaks and if you stay in this business very long you'll discover this won't be your last. That said, try reading a couple of the books I've suggested. They provide some really good thoughts on how to combat this issue. Go to Four Star Books Online and look for the Jesse Livermore book and the books by Mark Douglas. They'll be a big help. In the mean time, take it slow and easy and consider going back and paper trading for awhile.
Dan The Man asks (6:33:17 PM):
Hi Jim,With the incredible volatility in today's markets, do you think this brings us more opportunity or risk? I'm scared to jump in sometimes... What happened to a little market sputtering along and just slowly grinding up out of a channel??
Yes and yes! But if you're scared you shouldn't be trading real money. You have to totally accept that there is risk in the markets. If you're not comfortable with that then you should remain on the sidelines and paper trade until you are comfortable with it. The volatility in the market isn't going away anytime soon. So buckle up and paper trade more so that you get used to it. The biggest thing is to take it slow. . . just like eating an elephant -- one bite at a time!
Sandra C asks (6:36:36 PM):
Just to clarify as to number of markets, could I group the Notes 5,10, 30 as one market, as well as the beans. I am also enjoying your blog, I have taped up Trade Smart on my bathroom mirror.
Hi Sandra C! I think that simply focusing on 3-5 markets total is best -- especially when just starting out. In your example I would consider that three markets. Hope this makes it clear. I'd also always paper trade. Try focusing on maybe 10 market at first. Then if that's too much move down to 8, and so on until you feel comfortable. The number of markets each individual can follow will vary from person to person.
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Dan The Man asks (6:40:31 PM):
Jim,Do you pay any attention to what "Market Manipulators" might be doing? I hear that Gold and Silver are manipulated and are kept low but at some point soon the gig will be up and prices will skyrocket. Do you classify this as "stupid news"?
Yep, stupid news, Dan The Man! How could we all possibly know who "they" are and what "they" are doing. No chance we can. That said, both Gold and Silver have skyrocketed. The Gold cracked $1000 in March and Silver broke above 20.00 -- both awesome moves historically speaking!
Carl T asks (6:43:02 PM):
Jim, thanks for the tip to slowmo on how to breeze through all the markets. I tried it and it makes checking all the charts a lot easier. You can learn something new every month at these chats.
Glad to help, Carl T! Whether it's the chats, training videos, PAS videos, blog or trading camps. I figure if you can pull just one idea from any of these things (some on a monthly basis), then you're doing pretty good. Thanks!
BOXDOC asks (6:45:56 PM):
IT LOOKS LIKE SUGAR IS ABOUT TO DO A REVERSAL IS IT TOO SOON TO ENTER THIS MARKET?
Howdy BOXDOC! I don't see a reversal in the works at this time. Looking at October Sugar it's been in a down trend for sometime. In fact, Trend Seeker says the down trend has been in the works for 33 days. To top it off I don't currently see a chart pattern that we trade. Remember, you want to trade what you see not what you think. That said, the trend is down and there's no chart pattern. So keep watching until something shapes up for a possible setup. Thanks for your question.
Susan_in_CA asks (6:47:53 PM):
Hi Jim. I'm really enjoying the papertrading DVDs that you did. It was so good to have the "fudge factor" pointed out. I thought I was but somehow I wasn't really treating the "play money" enough like real money. Mark Douglas' book "The Discliplined Trader" is great and is definitely one of those books for me where re-reading it will reinforce what I'm learning. I feel really fortunate to have found this book, thanks for recommending it to us.
AWESOME Susan_in_CA! Glad the paper trading DVD has help you. The Mark Douglas book is a gold mine too, glad you found it as beneficial as I and many other have.
Brian asks (6:52:10 PM):
Jim, I have been watching Sept. Eurodollars, and that chart formation in the last couple of weeks looks like a flat bottom triangle to me. Am I just imagining this?
Hey Brian! September Eurodollars formed a beautiful sideways channel. I don't see a flat bottom triangle. Prices broke out to the downside of the channel on June 9. Be sure to take a look at the Chart Book and check out the chart with my notes and trend lines on it. We've been following this guy for awhile now and the breakout finally arrived. Our downside target for this paper trade is the Daily 50% level.
Dan The Man asks (6:56:56 PM):
Jim,Thank you so much for answering my questions. I have one more: Do you ever place limit orders just in case a market breaks out of a channel? In other words, if you identify a channel and TS says the trend is up, do you just put a buy order right above the channel so you catch it on the way up? This would have helped me get in the Eurodollar and Japanese Yen recent moves... Also, when is your next trading camp?? I want to go there LIVE!!
Glad to help, Dan! You wouldn't have wanted to use limit orders as per your examples above. Instead, you would have used stop orders. A buy stop above the channel and a sell stop below the channel. I haven't used that type of order placement for a long time. I prefer to see the market close outside of the formation and then get in. Usually this would require a limit order because prices have to "pull back." I haven't scheduled a Trading Camp yet. However, I think when I do I'll narrow it down to either late summer or early fall. Thanks for your interest.
Mike in NYC asks (6:58:20 PM):
Trader Jim: I read both books from Mark Douglas a few months ago, and they opened my eyes to the mental mistakes I had been making. After last month's chat I started paper trading a $5,000 account with the goal of growing it to $6,000. I accomplished that goal, with one winning Corn, one losing Corn, and one winning Corn futures contract. Before I read the books, I would have been discouraged after the 2nd losing trade. Now I just take the small loss and move on. The 3rd paper trade in Corn put me over the top. Now my goal is to trade a real $5,000 account and do the same thing. Thanks for suggesting such great books, on the mental aspect of trading.
Thanks for sharing, Mike in NYC! Hopefully your words of encouragement will help others. Thanks again!
fatboy asks (7:00:10 PM):
If a market has moved to far after breaking out of a formation and you are waiting for a pullback, what type of order do you use when the retracement occurs?
Hey fatboy! If trading futures contracts you'd use a limit order. Let's say you want to go long. So if the price is say 50 and you want to get in at 48, you'd place a limit order to buy at 48 or better.
FutureTrader asks (7:05:47 PM):
Hi Jim. I have been paper trading and studying futures and options on and off for many years now, since TWMPMM if you can believe it. I just wanted to say that I think you and the staff at GBE/USCharts are doing a great job at carrying the torch that Ken Roberts started all those years ago. I go through PAS withdraw each weekend, so I use that time to reveiw the training videos archives. Kudos on all of the new features like Jim's blog and the Heat Map. I look forward to my "trading time" more and more each day. My one wish would be that the PAS include more focus on options with insight and/or suggestions on strategy.
Hi Futuretrader! Thanks for the kind words about our staff, features and the PAS. In regards to options within the PAS. . . it's difficult to spend much time on them because it would really limit the number of markets I can follow on a daily basis. Right now my average video is like 11-12 minutes long and that covers a lot of markets. But I tell you what, I'll see if I can't point out options from time-to-time. One additional thought, be sure to check the blog because I've recently broken down two different markets and potential options that traders can focus on. I plan to do a lot more of this in the future too. Thanks for stopping by tonight.
Larry From Long Isla asks (7:09:56 PM):
Hey Jim,Good stuff in the grains, lots of movement, Hopefully we can end the summer they way we did last year. Anyway, taking a look at the Sept US$, did it break out of a pennant today? I drew some trend lines and it looks to me like after a false break 3 days ago, it broke out to the upside today. TS has it up exteme. Thanks as always for all your great help, enjoy Chi-town!
I see a pennant, Larry, but I don't see that prices have broken out of it. That said, I also see a 1-2-3 bottom formation. A break above the #2 point will trigger a paper trade to the upside because TS says the trend is up.
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slowmo asks (7:14:00 PM):
Hi again Jim, It looks like we are still going through a period of high volatility. Is it harder to find good setups in markets when they are doing this? I have noticed that the last few months the setups don't seem to be as prevalent or as trustworthy. I would also like to once again praise you on your dvds. The Targets, Stops and Money management made easy is an excellent educational tool for the markets. Thanks, Gary
Yo, slowmo. . . I don't think the volatility will end anytime soon. That said, remember that the markets cycle. They cycle the up and down. The formations and opportunities cycle as well. This is why risk management is so vitally important. Keeping your losses small and being able to withstand some cold streaks is key to long term success. Thanks again for the nice comments about the DVD.
ready2win asks (7:16:24 PM):
Hey Jim, Received my Trading Camp DVD a few weeks ago and what a great job you all did on them. I have plans one of these days to attend a camp live but having the dvd's really are helping me along with the other tools, such as PAS, Training Videos, Master the Chart Series, etc. Thanks so much for all you do
That's great, ready2win! Glad you're enjoying the DVDs. Let me ask you this. . . are you enjoying the humor too? LOL  Thanks to you and all of you folks for all the positive comments. We are truly doing the best we can to edumacate you the right way! Glad you love what we're doing.
Bonita Joe asks (7:21:03 PM):
Mr. Prince, I submitted to your method of trading last Nov. and am very happy with the results!! (The Disciplined Trader is GREAT!!!....and what I need.) Question....Ken is still in me and I use his methods on one commodity...coffee. I know the monthly and weekly charts are not as accurate as the daily, BUT ther is a long ascending line of support on the monthly that gets steeper on May 7, 2007. Coffee has been adhearing to this support without a hiccup (same on the weekly). Based on this line of support and a pennant from the daily chart, coffee is coming down to a "squeeze play" (sorta like our Padres have been getting squeezed! Do you ever, anymore, look at these out charts for potential upcoming trades?? Since I use coffee only for this, I have made more than some nice profits. As a thought, as you are "somewhat" of a baseball fan....why don't you take our Padres....the "Grants Pass Padres....." Has a nice ring to it????? Thanks for ALL YOU DO, and I want to take a bootcamp with you. Bonita Joe
The Grants Pass Padres? LOL, I don't know of too many major league players that would like a cow pasture as an outfield. That said, I'll spread the word! I don't look at coffee the same way you do. So I don't feel I can give you any insight. I think you've probaly got it pegged pretty good.
dirtfarmer asks (7:22:16 PM):
I have been paper trading for about 2 years. I have seen much less follow through on breaks in the markets recently. Is this unusual times, or is this something one can expect from time to time?
Dirtfarmer, it is something that happens from time to time. Don't get discouraged, it's a normal part of the busines. Thanks for stopping by tonight.
Soy Oil asks (7:23:52 PM):
Soy Oil says thanks for your blog In your bean oilblog posted several days ago, I made two separate profits from it. One for 1470.00,and for 576.00.
Sweet Georgia Brown, Soy Oil! Good for you and glad you're reading the blog!
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Chris asks (7:28:49 PM):
Hello Jim, The reason I asked that question about the long day in Platinum was because that one long day scared me. If my stop was at the top of the channel I assume I would be stopped there but with such a huge move against my paper trade position I don't know if I would have been stopped out at that price or at that day's high. What does your experience/insight tell you would have happened?
Chris, the downside to futures and stops is that your stop order may not be filled at your price. If the market is moving really fast there is a good chance it won't be at your price and you can end of losing more than you thought you would. This is an inherent risk when trading futures contracts. So remember that markets moving quickly and limit moves can skip right over your stops. But if you're a trader you must learn to accept that this is part of the business.
Jim from Kalamazoo, asks (7:31:58 PM):
I just wanted to let you know I got back into the markets after being out for about 6 years. I have 1 October Sugar call and holding on. Thanks to Ken and you for keeping this going !!
Welcome back, Jim. Remember, always have a plan in place for each and every trade. If you know your stop loss level and profit targets you'll be that much further ahead of the next guy. Also know that as a trader you must learn to become a master of risk management! If you can do this, you have a real good shot at reaching your trading goals!
Well that's it for this month. Keep in mind, that you're not alone in your trading journey. US Charts Online, myself, and our wonderful Course Counselors (541-955-2885) are here to help you become the best you can be. On that note, be sure to check out our weekly video training lessons at: US Charts Online. This is a fantastic teaching tool and free to all GBE Members and US Chart Online subscribers! Finally, make sure you have a plan prior to entering any trade and use stops to protect your trading capital. As a trader your capital is THE most valuable asset you have! Plan your trade and trade your plan! My next chat will be on Tuesday, July 8, 2008. God Bless and I look forward to seeing you then!
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