Chat Archives
Commodity Chat With Trader Jim! (tm) with Jim Prince
from 01/15/2008
Hello and good evening! Trader Jim here. . . Thanks for joining me for our first chat of the New Year! I'm very excited about tonight's chat as several markets have been rolling nicely since our last get together. So we have a lot to discuss this evening. March Corn made a new all-time high recently as did February Gold and February Crude Oil! In addition, February Lean Hogs, February Live Cattle, March Soybean Oil and March Sugar have also offered nice opportunities. Plus March Oats, March Cocoa and March Cotton have recently triggered possible paper trading setups. All of these markets have, at one time or another, been featured in our nightly Premium Alert Service™ (PAS) videos. If you've had a successful paper trade or real money trade in any of these markets (or others), Feel free to share your trade details with fellow Course Members. Discussing your market experiences lets others know they are not alone in this business. So please feel free to share your excitement, enthusiasm, and dedication. It supplies others hope and optimism of what's to come. I'd like send a big "Thank You" to Ken Roberts. Ken started introducing folks to the Greatest Business on Earth™ over 20 years ago. I was fortunate enough to not only be a student of Ken's, but I also had the great pleasure to work for him for 12+ years. I'm happy to be able to share with you what I've learned over the years. As we begin this evening's session, remember the reason these monthly chats are conducted is to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and to pick the brain of a 20+ year student of the markets. It's not the best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. (That's what our Course Counselors are here for. They can be reached at 541-955-2885) This chat is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you're learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you're out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun and laughter along those lines, so much the better. NOTE!!! When commenting on one of the GBE strategies or US Charts, please identify WHICH STRATEGY AND/OR MARKET. Also, when relating trading experiences and/or results, please provide details: Futures contracts, options, option strike prices, options AND futures, real money or paper trading, etc. This helps others follow along and learn from your experience too.
Marsha asks (6:01:05 PM):
Hi Trader Jim, Trading has been very profitable from several markets, but I had one incident I wanted to share. I had 1 March Cotton 6400 put that I bought at 1.93. ($965.00). The trade went against me - past my imaginary stop, so I wanted to get out. Called my broker, found that option last traded at .90, so I placed an order "at the market" and got filled at .40 ! Not quite what I was expecting. Apparently, it was very sparse trading that day and the next trade was at .40 so that's what I got filled at. Lesson learned: don’t place a market order on a slow day unless you know the volume and OI too. Am I missing any other lessons ? Thanks for all you and your staff do. It is very much appreciated. Happy Trading ! M ?
Hi Marsha! You are correct, don't place market orders on slow days. In fact, I would take it a step further and say not to place market orders at all if possible. Just too many things can happen. I suggest working with your broker and take a look at the days range and work up some sort of exit stratgey based on that. A good broker can really help in a situation like this. Thanks for the kind words.
Donald asks (6:03:09 PM):
When using the fish hook pattern...do we wait for the market to trade below the breakout number and come back up and then enter the trade?
Hey Donald, You can use that approach but keep in mind that the market won't always trade below the breakout point. So you have to manage it a bit more carefully. The fish hook is really an artistic visual pattern in that we'll all have slightly different entries. Good question.
walter asks (6:04:47 PM):
do you expect to trade forex this year?
I don't, Walter. I can trade all the currencies I want via the futures market. Plus you're not dinged for pips etc. I prefer the currencies found on the IMM exchange.
Neel R asks (6:07:35 PM):
Hi Jim! I've been with GBE for just over 2 months and I'm really enjoying it, so thanks for the Premuim Alerts, etc. My winning trades were riding March Bean Oil from Dec 24 to Jan 10 when I got stopped out leaving me with over 320% profit. I also did an at the money March 480 call/460 put strategy which netted me 50% in seven weeks. So my question is does the at the money call/put startegy seem as fool proof as I believe it to be? I'm looking at doing this for May cotton!
Neel R, congrats on the nice trades. But remember this. . . there is nothing that is fool proof in the markets. Just when you think there is the market will bring you back to reality. I think you get the most bang for you buck with the at (or closeto)-the-money options.
barry asks (6:09:45 PM):
Hi Jim, and all the people learning the greatest business on earth. Concerning the channel breakouts and Strong 1 etc. What is one of your favorite signals that you like to trade and why?
Hi barry, My favorite chart pattern is the pennant. I can easily recognize these and just love the look and "feel" of them. I think the Hi Lo is a close second though. Nothing better than being part of a good momentum backed move in the markets. That's where the Hi Lo steps in.
Jimmy james asks (6:11:36 PM):
Hello Jim; My ?, is what is the difference between the robo entry and the fish/hook that I use?
Hey hey hey, Jimmy James. . . the Robo Entry Method is a mechanical method. The fish hook is a chart pattern. Be sure you watch the Training Videos I've produce on each. You can find the videos under the Training Video tab at US Charts Online.
Limit Up in Texas asks (6:14:26 PM):
Jim my broker does not speak that well of mini contracts yet you seem very open to use them as a tool why would he feel that way when his commission is still the same? Can you explain possible reasons ?
Howdy Limit Up in Texas! Your broker may not prefer the minis for the grains and meats. They generally have low volume and open interest. I don't focus on those however. Generally speaking when I'm chatting about the mini's it has to do with the stock indicies or even Crude Oil and Gold. Hope this helps.
James K asks (6:17:07 PM):
Hello Trader Jim, I just wanted to let everyone know how well this business really works if you take the good advise of of trade Jim and do exactly as he teaches in the GBE. Since January 2nd the markets have really taken off. I'm up $7,700 in less than 2 weeks. Thanks for everything you have done with the course. I have never learned so much as I have with trader Jim in the past 12 months. I will never be without money again. This is truly the best business in the world. Good luck to all.
AWESOME! Nice work James K! Thanks for the kind words. But I give you all the credit. You taken the steps necessary to reach the point you are at. Congrats and keep up the great work!
The analog kid asks (6:19:22 PM):
Just wanted to let you know that I am up over $24,000.00 in the Sugar markets. Went long with 6 March 2008 Sugar and 12 May 2008 Sugar. I also made $15,500 with 5 November feed cattle contrats a few months ago. Just wanted to send a big thank you to you and Ken Roberts. I could not have done any of this with out you two. (I am still long all 18 contracts of sugar. Thank God for put otions for insurance!!) A big thank you once again. For those who are having a hard time...DON'T GIVE UP!!
Sweeeeeeeet! Nice job, analog kid! What else could I possibly say? I can't think of a thing! Keep doin' what you're doin'!
tradetracker asks (6:24:31 PM):
Jim, I cannot express enough my thanks for your coming on board. Ken did a masterful job of getting me started and you and the team have taken me farther than I ever thought was possible. Keep on keepin on! My question. When a market goes almost vertical and the movement prior is also up steeply, how do you apply the wave theory properly? Thanks again as all you do is most appreciated.
Thanks for the nice words, tradetracker. Very difficult for me to answer you question without seeing an example. But know this. . . you can't always use the Wave Projection Method because the chart pattern just isn't visable. I'll see if I can't do a video down the line to provide a better explanation. Thanks again and I wish you the best.
For those of you folks that have ordered our Trading Camp DVDs here's an update. . . There was a delay at the production house but we've been promised that we'll recieve product the first part of next week. I'm told that we'll actually begin shipping orders out on Jan. 23. I know you're all anxious and we really appreciate your patience.
bkmon asks (6:29:27 PM):
Jim thanks for all the information you pass on to the course members. It is a very deliberate approach in a very emotional business. You have said that a 1-2-3 breakout is the only reversal pattern that you look at, however I have heard from others in the business that an island reversal is the strongest reversal pattern. What do you think of the island reversal?
There are as many trading opinions as there are traders my friend. I feel the Island Reversal, while a strong pattern, doesn't happen as often as the 1-2-3s. I personally prefer the 1-2-3s along with Trend Seeker (TS). Plus the Island Reversal don't work with TS. They put you in a position prior to TS confirming the trend.
Donald asks (6:32:45 PM):
Jim...Thanks. I have been investing for twelve years so I have learned that there are dozens of ways to lose your money...so I am concerned to fine tune my entries. I find that either the robo method or the fish hook method have value...but how do you handle it if your price is hit when the market is moving against your desired position? Won't I be risking being stopped out only to watch the trade do as I anticipated without me?
Hey Donald, You handle it just as you would any other trade. Buying when the market is moving down is tough for folks to do. Everyone wants to buy on the way up. That works fine for some strategies (the Hi Lo for example), but realize you get a much better price bu buying lower. You have to judge how much you're willing to risk -- that's the hardest part. Btw, the only way to use the Robo Entry Method is when prices are pulling back. Keep paper trading it and I think you'll discover that there is a lot mor to these entries than just "value." Keep on keepin' on!
sc123 asks (6:33:32 PM):
When is the next live trading camp going to be held?
See the message below. . .
Because so many have been asking for it, we've recently scheduled our first Greatest Business on Earth™ Trading Camp for 2008! Our Trading Camps sell out in just a matter of days. And because so many Course Members continue to ask for additional camps, we've opened enrollment in February for our first Trading Camp of the New Year! Our next Trading Camp will be held on February 16 & 17, 2008. If you're interested in personal attention then the GBE Trading Camp is what you've been waiting for! Not only am I there to answer your questions, but so are our wonderful Course Counselors! One of my favorite things about teaching the Trading Camps is meeting you folks that attend because you are from such a diverse background. From retirees to stay-at-home mom's to recent college graduates -- in other words, I get to meet some really neat people! In addition, I truly enjoy the one-on-one time and conversations I have with students during the breaks and the Saturday evening dinner. Besides the personal attention you'll get at our Trading Camp, one of the neatest aspects about attending these small group functions is the camaraderie that students develop. If you're interested in expanding your trading education, get those nagging questions answered, and developing "trading" relationships that can last a life time, I encourage you to click the link below to learn more about our February Camp. Click here to learn more about our February Trading Camp!
sherrie in utah asks (6:38:04 PM):
I've been paper trading for over 6 months. I feel that I have learned a lot. Is there a guideline for how long someone should paper trade before using real money?
Hi sherrie in utah! I'll pass on what Ken used to say. . . he said paper trade until you're tired of making money on paper! (or something similar). There is no guideline, sherrie. Every person is different. Some folks will paper trade or a few months. Others will go a year or more. It's up to you. Only conside moving on to real money once you're completely comfortable -- only you'll know when that will be.
griley asks (6:41:18 PM):
hi jim, happy new year i've been paper trading for almost a year now and for xmas was giving money to open up an account got a broker thanks to your advice watched my charts and new oats was on the move sometime around jan 3 but for some reason just couldn't bring myself to call my broker and place my order did paper trade and would of made money and that's not the only one i missed out on just don't trust myself to risk real money need some advice
HI griley! Sounds like you're not quite ready to trade with real money. Trading is a very emotional business. Right now your emotions are in the way. Keep paper trading and consider investing in a couple of good trading psychological books. Go to your favorite book store and look for Trading in the Zone and The Disciplined Trader. Both books are by Mark Douglas. I highly recommend them!
victor asks (6:42:49 PM):
Why do we not use stochastics?
Howdy victor! Not sure why we should. I don't see the value. I focus on price patterns and Trend Seeker. It's all I need. Other "technical" stuff would just clutter our charts and make things confusing.
ChampaignChad asks (6:44:10 PM):
Hey Jim, Being a father I figured you might enjoy this. I have 22 month old twin sons and everytime they hear the PAS or Training video intro music they come running! They like to sit on my lap while I go over the charts. I'm startin' them off early. :))
LOL, that's AWESOME ChampaignChad! I appreciate you sharing that with me. You made my day!
waynetoliver asks (6:47:18 PM):
Hi, Jim. As we all know the grains are all way up. As a trader that eats, when can we expect to see these high prices reflected in the grocery store?
Frankly Waynetoliver I have no idea. That stuff for the grocery chains and economist to figure out. I figure I'll still be eatin' anyway and worse case I can eat old issue of US Charts paper charts -- at least I can boil them and make soup. They print them using Soybean Oil in the ink. 
dordietry asks (6:48:13 PM):
Hi Jim.....Any idea when US Charts will be having stock charts?
We're still chatting about it. May something will come of it during the next year. I'll pass on your interest. Thanks!
TeddyC asks (6:53:20 PM):
Hi TJ - RE: D6-H8. I had the March (E) CDN$ in a 123Top Formation, You said yesterday it formed a Flat Bottom Triangle. The results are the same since the two patterns coincide. Would this coinciding of two patterns indicate a strong formation?
Generally I would say yes, TeddyC. But that's a HUGE 1-2-3 top and personally I don't like to see that much room between the #1 and #2 points. It covers half the chart. Hard to use the pattern for stop placement because of the difference. That's why I prefer the flat bottom triangle. Goold eye though. The key here is for this market to break the strong suppor to the Daily 50% level. If it happens prices could roll over. Time will tell.
semsam asks (6:55:43 PM):
hi Jim, i have been trading for about 1 1/2 years. The first year my account went down to about 10%, then in the last six month came back to 100 % and then some. Have been following your PAS faithfully and learend a lot. Before i was to concerned with indicators and oscilator, funny-mentals, etc. For me is very hard to keep it simple, but it's the way to go. As you often say 'It's not brain surgery, or rocket science' Thanks
Right on, semsam! That's what I'm talking about. I've trend 'em too and ran into the same thing. Keeping it simple is the way to go! Congrats for joining us simpletons! LOL
francis asks (6:57:38 PM):
Jimbo,Since I usually trade options and not futures, I place my stops about 10 points below the running option price and hope I can hang in with the trend. This has worked great for bean oil and corn this year but do you think I am giving too much back when the trend reverses? It is simple, although I have found sometimes options do not trade as easy as futures. Some times the market can blow by an option stop. This causes a larger give back than I intend.
Hard to say, francis. I think this is really a question only you can answer. I'd keep pluggin' away and see what kind of stats you can get after an extended number of trades. That and continue paper trading to see how the results workout.
jstcpa asks (7:01:17 PM):
Hi Jim. Thanks for the great job with the PAS. I was wondering if, when shopping for options, you look at or take into consideration an option's delta number. It seems like knowing an option's delta would provide one with at least a rough idea of how any given option might perform in relation to the underlying futures contract. In other word, is an option's delta a number we should be concerned with when shopping for options?
I focus on options that are close-to-the-money. Usually the delta is high on these options. The further away the strike price the lower the delta will be. Thus the chance for that option to make money is limited. Generally if you focus on options that are within 3-5 strikes of being at-the-money the delta will be pretty good. Check it out via paper trading and let me know your conclusions.
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Timur asks (7:04:43 PM):
Hi Jim! I have been away for several years, but I have always kept tabs on the GBE. About 3 months ago I decided to try again and found so much more information and techniques. I love it! I started reading, learning and started paper trading. On paper, I am up just about $7000 even with some silly mistakes. Almost time to start with the real thing. A couple of questions though. Corn has hit a monthly target - 509. Is this a good trigger to enter a trade? And ... how far in advance should one liquidate an option as it approaches expiration? Of course, every thing is going your way? Thanks for all your help and enthusiasm. I love the charts!
Welcome back, timur! Glad you're enjoying the GBE biz again. As far as Corn goes. . . for now it does not meet any requirements of our various strategies. We had an entry about a month ago and it has since hit three upside targets. In other words, the train has left the station. This is one to now watch from the sidelines and wait to see if one of our chart patterns will form.
Bonita Joe asks (7:06:36 PM):
Trader Jim!!! Well, confession time. have been trading since 2001 when I finished a boot camp with Ken. I should have paper traded for another 6 months, but was really fired up, so I dug in and slowly made more than I lost. I will admit that I finally got to a sizable sum of $300,000 /- after 5 years. This slowly grew, but in August of '07 decided to do it the "Prince Way" and placed $30,000 in an account.I had many coffee calls that I liquidated around 10/15/07, made a lot and then did hi/lo brkouts, 1-2-3 top/bottom, and held STOPS!! This account is now $430,000.Thanks Jim!!
AMAZING! Shows you what a little capital can do with good money management. Fantastic job, Bonita Joe! Thanks for sharing with us!
S in Seattle asks (7:11:23 PM):
Hi Trader Jim,Thanks for the PAS it has given me more confidence to trade real money. I ended 2007 with a small net profit and hope to do even better this year. I have heard that you should not have more than a 4th or 5th of your capital in one market. Is this a good idea and does that mean you only risk that much or you only spend that much?
It really depends on several factors, S in Seattle. Your account size and risk tolerance are the two most important. Some traders can comfortably risk 10% of available cash with no problems at all. Some are better at risking 2%. It really depends. Funny that you should mention that because I am just putting on the finishing touches to the newest Master the Chart DVD program titled: Targets, Stops and Money Management Made Easy(tm). This is a topic that is strongly coverered as well as position sizing -- which I think is one of the most important things in trading. We'll let you folks know more about it here in a few weeks.
Bill asks (7:13:54 PM):
Hi JIm, if I want to brush up on options, (re-visit it after a couple years) were would you suggest I start? BT
Read the Greatest Business on Earth Trading Manual, Bill! All the basics are covered ther. You can get a copy of the manual right from this site. Then study our strategies in the manual as well as on the GBE site. Then review the Trading Videos. Tons of information and you should be able to find what you need. Thanks for stopping by tonight.
Limit Up in Texas asks (7:15:05 PM):
Thanks Jim , I'm currently paper trading Gold with mini contracts I will let you know how it goes.
Thanks Limit Up in Texas! Please do. I was wondering if anybody was going to comment on gold. It's been unbelievable the last couple months! For lack of a better word it's been "golden!"
bosshog21 asks (7:16:51 PM):
does volume have anything to do with chart action,is there a quiet time before a breakout?In other words low action follow by alot of volume?
Howdy bosshog21! That's often the case, but I don't pay much attention to the volume. My main concerns are the price action and Trend Seeker. No magic or special potions. Just the charts and TS.
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Marti asks (7:22:12 PM):
Hi Jim - On Monday's alert line when talking about March corn you said there was a doji bar - Could you explain what that is? Thanks
Hi Marti! A doji bar is simply a price bar that has the same open and closing price. It's generally considered a day of indecision by traders. It can often reverse the underlying trend too. Don't focus on it too much though. It's simply a very small part of the big overall picture.
ebedawg asks (7:24:46 PM):
Hello Jim! I'm paper trading ala gbe.So far so so good. Would like to jump in for real soon. I've been in may sugar since 10.50,11.00 and11.39. Looks good to me. why no word on the alerts?
Hey ebedog, Actually been following Sugar on the PAS since early December. However, right now waiting for something to happen. Check out the chart in the Chart Book and you'll see what I mean. Glad to read you're doing well. Protect your positions!
missy asks (7:27:28 PM):
Been paper trading, and had great results with an option. however, Im a little gunshy of futures, especially oil, because my stoploss order may not be filled in time and I may loose my shirt. Am I just overly cautious.Missy
No worries, missy! You don't need to trade futures. If you're more comfortable with options then that's the vehicle you should stick with. One important thing all GBE students need to remember and that is this. . . stay within your comfort level! It's the sleep rule. . . only take positions that allow you to sleep at night. If you can't sleep, you're over trading or have too much capital at risk.
Layne Thrasher asks (7:30:52 PM):
Jim, would you consider March us dollar in a triangle with a break out to the down?
Good eye, Lane Thrasher! The only thing is we must wait for Trend Seeker to confirm the downtrend. Once that happens we must be on red alert! Take a look at the chart in the Chart Book at US Charts Online. I just updated it.
greenthumb asks (7:35:08 PM):
Yes...could someone please comment on gold at 900! Contrarians say wait for a pull back. then buy?
Greenthumb, Check this out. . . I actually feel that I am a contrairian! I say that because most traders are always looking to pick tops or bottoms. I am of the minority and trade with the trend. Had we been trying to pick a top in Feb. Gold we would have been crushed and never had the chance to potentially profit from our three targets being hit. Could gold pull back here? Sure, in fact I chatted about that on one of the recent PAS videos.
grkepic asks (7:37:24 PM):
Hi, does your course teach any long term trading methods.
It depends on your definition of long-term, grkepic. I would say most of our setups last no longer than 3 months -- on average. That's the high end. We have had trades that have lasted even longer has our multiple targets have been hit.
anotherjim asks (7:40:04 PM):
Is it possible to papertrade like you would real trade? Papertrading is low stress, but real cash messes with the mind some. I don't enter trades that I wouldn't enter with real money. I may answer my own question simply with the use of stops, and staying within myself. Thanks for all the help!!!
You've answered your own question, anotherjim. Paper trading is great for learning the mechanics of the biz. But we people are funny when we put money at risk. We will do things that we know aren't correct in our trading. Thus we pay for it. Only paper trade as though you are trading with real money. Doing anything else is pointless. I believe you're on the right track. Keep pluggin' away.
boomer asks (7:42:48 PM):
Hi Jim, what do you think of the gold market?What price do you think it can go to?
It's been golden, boomer! It hit both of our targets. Really can't ask for much more. We'll see what materializes from here. Right now I'm watching from the sidelines.
The analog kid asks (7:45:03 PM):
Any idea when the next "Master The Chart Series" will be out?
See my response to S in Seattle's question asked at 7:11:23pm. Thanks for your interest.
ChampaignChad asks (7:47:09 PM):
Jim,Just out of curiousity, what is you opinion on March Copper? I see an 'upward sloping channel'. Is it real, or am I just seein' things? Thanks
Hey Chad, My opinion is that it's just moved back to the top of its channel. It's been in a trading range since mid-November. Be sure to take a peak at the March Copper chart at US Charts Online for a complete breakdown.
francis asks (7:52:30 PM):
Jim, Electronic trading vs the pit. Are we not on the verge of losing the emotional feel of the pit trade? That would take away some of the advanntage of the disciplined trader don't you think?
I don't think so, francis. Many market have trade electronically for years. Humans still, for the most part, make the trading decisions. Whenever people are involved you'll have emotionally based decisions in the works.
KidComer asks (7:53:46 PM):
Hey Jim, Really enjoy the chart services and the updates. It is also good to hear people's experiences at actually making profitable trades and how they did it. Do you still have anything like the old conversation with course members?
Not at this point. But we have batted it around a bit. Hopefully we can get something like this up and running in 2008. Thanks for your interest.
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chatom asks (7:57:02 PM):
Hi Jim, I can't seem to get my stop loss in the right place. How many points should I drop. chatom
There is no set answer for your question. It depends on several factors. Your risk tolerence is the main one. Some will use support/resistance levels. Some will use money stops. Be sure you take a look at the Training videos. I've produced a couple different ones about stops. Thanks for your question.
tradetracker asks (7:58:44 PM):
Jim, In view of your experience in the markets, when all these serging markets begin to take a breather and start to reverse the trend, what pattern formation{s} are you most likely to see?
It's very possible. We'll just keep using and trading the same patterns as taught in the course. I don't try to out guess the market. I'll let it tell me what to look for and what to trade. Remember, we want to trade what we see, not what we think!
Dave C, Natick asks (8:00:36 PM):
Gotta say, I love this Premium Alert Service. Gives me so much more control over my trades. Wish we had something similar for healthcare!
Thanks for the nice words. So, how would that work for health care? One of those questions that make you go ummmmmm!
bayou bill asks (8:03:23 PM):
Hello Jim Turnaround Tuesday killed my copper play. Is there something I missed or was I just to greedy? And how often is turnaround Tuesday a concern?
Not sure what you mean, bayou bill. Prices pulled back to support of the top of the channel. Did you enter at the recent highs? If so, know that is something we don't teach. We want to try to entry near support/resistance levels. In this case, near the top of the channel in regards to the initial trigger. I don't think turnaround Tuesday should even be part of a trading plan or that big of a concern.
ready2win asks (8:05:18 PM):
Thanks for sharing your personal information Bonita Joe! Awesome! Jim, I want to echo what a lot of fellow traders have said tonight and other night. This business gives a person hope for the future and allows us the opportunity to take control of our destiny. Thanks for all of the tools and videos and time you put in for us.
You bet, readytowin! It's my pleasure. I really love doing it. No question about it, this is by far the Greatest Business on Earth!
Well that's it for this month. Keep in mind, that you're not alone in your trading journey. US Charts Online, myself, and our wonderful Course Counselors (541-955-2885) are here to help you become the best you can be. On that note, be sure to check out our weekly video training lessons at: US Charts Online. They are a fantastic teaching tool and free to all GBE Members and Online Chart subscribers! Finally, make sure you have a plan prior to entering any trade and use stops to protect your trading capital. As a trader your capital is THE most valuable asset you have! Plan your trade and trade your plan! My next chat will be on Tuesday, February 12, 2008. God Bless and I look forward to seeing you then!
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